Application of multi-morbidity indices and computerised prediction tools to identify the subset of patients in general practice who may benefit from anticipatory care planning

Project Status
Current

Chief Investigators
Dr Isuru Ratnayake and Dr Joel Rhee

Aim

To test the effectiveness of certain multi-morbidity indices and prediction tools in identifying General Practice patients who are at high risk of mortality and morbidity and therefore may benefit from anticipatory care planning.

Method

A retrospective study of patients in the ePBRN database over a specified period of time will be linked with deaths data.

Multi-morbidity indexes that allow the estimation of a patient’s prognosis and risk mortality identified by a systematic review will be converted into a computerised search algorithm.

Each algorithm will be applied to the patient data set to identify patients who are at high risk of morbidity and mortality.

- The data repository will be interrogated for actual data on mortality and acute health service utilisation (as a marker of morbidity).

- The performance characteristics of the indices and screening tools will then be compared with each other and recommendations made on the best tools to use.